House Prices

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Kmt2019 said:
I have seen prices in my area go up 40k in the last year alone. Regarding house prices and the recession, I think they may stay the same or drop in London, but outside of London I don’t think they will drop due to other factors to consider.

1. COVID-19 allowing people to work from home, therefore not needing to live in London and not needing to commute. Therefore wanting to buy places with more space and land.

2. Stamp duty being cancelled, therefore making people who have been wanting to buy do it sooner to make the most of the saving. Also it makes buying more property v attractive to people who already have property, but want more for buy to let / property portfolios.

3. Lack of good quality housing stock. There are new build estates popping up all over the place, but majority arn’t built to last. Demand outweighs the supply for quality housing.

I’m no estate agent or expert, but that is just my two pence!
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We have a friend who is a mortgage broker, and they are crazy busy. However, the stamp duty thing only works if it’s your one and only property, whether you are a FTB or not. So if you are trying to get a BTL or a second home, you still need to pay.
 
Kmt2019 said:
ahhhh I see! Thanks for clearing that up 😄
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You may be able to get a rebate, if you buy a second property and sell your first one within 36 months or something like that, not 100 percent sure obviously. Wouldn’t risk that with everything going on tbh.
They are seeing a lot of people buying both ordinary homes and BTL. They also think it’s going to crash in November-December, and then January is when smart rich people are going to buy it all up - same thing happened in 2008.
 
It's way too early for house prices to fall, 9 million are being paid by the government not to work and there was always going to be a mini bounce with months of pent up demand. The stamp duty cut fueled it more.

The rise of last month just counteracted the fall the month before, so they've not risen in the last few months. Asking prices have risen as some sellers want to pocket the stamp duty savings. But what gets through and accepted is another thing, I've started to see things fall through and go back up for sale.

I wouldn't buy until spring next year. But I doubt "smart rich people will buy up all the houses" as houses don't perform that we'll compared to other investments and it's something that will be all too easy to tax. Buying houses is the investment for people that don't know anything about investing.

Kmt2019 said:
I think they may stay the same or drop in London, but outside of London I don’t think they will drop due to other factors to consider.
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We're entering the biggest recession in memory, far far bigger than 2008 and they fell significantly then. Just seems unsustainable for house prices to be so out of sync with wages.
 
Yel said:
It's way too early for house prices to fall, 9 million are being paid by the government not to work and there was always going to be a mini bounce with months of pent up demand. The stamp duty cut fueled it more.

The rise of last month just counteracted the fall the month before, so they've not risen in the last few months. Asking prices have risen as some sellers want to pocket the stamp duty savings. But what gets through and accepted is another thing, I've started to see things fall through and go back up for sale.

I wouldn't buy until spring next year. But I doubt "smart rich people will buy up all the houses" as houses don't perform that we'll compared to other investments and it's something that will be all too easy to tax. Buying houses is the investment for people that don't know anything about investing.


We're entering the biggest recession in memory, far far bigger than 2008 and they fell significantly then. Just seems unsustainable for house prices to be so out of sync with wages.
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Okay, stupid rich people will buy all the houses, what’s the difference?
We are in Devon though, maybe things are different in the South East or up North, and that’s what our friends (mortgage broker, solicitors, estate agents - we were very lucky with all the help we got when we bought ours) have seen in 2008. The same clients who did it in 2008 are now popping up again and they are getting ready, according to them.
 
We’re in Yorkshire, we bought our house at the start of the year, it’s the most expensive house on the street (that’s not a boast, we liked the house and the area, it was move in condition and we had a lot of equity from the sale of our London flat and we wanted a home for the long term so we paid above asking). 2 properties in the street have gone up for sale, both needing work doing and have sold for more than we paid.....I’m definitely surprised a the price rises
 
Kmt2019 said:
Just saw this in the DM:

Britain's mini housing boom: Stamp duty cut adds £30,000 to average property asking price with sales up 20% as house-hunters battle to buy before six-month tax break ends

#
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Typical mail clickbait stuff "asking prices up" and sales up 20% compares to when? Easy to cherry pick things to create a headline.

There's not really a story in saying it's looking uncertain, come back in a few months when we'll have real data for a real story.

One thing that I think keeps getting overlooked is the demographics have changed so much, so there's less of a will to keep prices high as the have nots keep growing. Not that they have many fiscal tools left to prop up the market as they used them all in the last recession and we were a long way off recovering from that.

Most liked comments:
  1. So potentially "save" 15,000 on stamp duty, but pay 30,000 extra for a property due to the stamp duty cut. Are people really going for this? Lol
  2. In the past there has always been a last minute boom before the bust. Can anyone else remember all the gazumping etc. of the Summer of 1988? With growing numbers of job loses still to come it is a brave person who buys a house today.
  3. Unless you have a very hyper safe job there is no way you should be taking on more credit. Remember just because it is available it does not mean you have to use it.
 
There are houses in our town ( on the cheaper end of the scale, where we are looking) being listed that are expensive/overpriced compared to recent sales of similar houses. We've been keeping an eye on prices as we've wanted to move for a while. We could do with selling up to get out of our existing mortgage and complicated situation, and our current house had previously been in negative equity when we had it valued. I am so desperate to move .
 
We are hopefully moving house within the next couple of months. I've sold my current house for more than what it was up for in January. We are desperate to move somewhere bigger and stamp duty cut is a welcome saving of over 10k for us. Maybe I'm super naive but I want to move house and I'm not putting my life on hold any longer. We've not over stretched ourselves and are buying a property that is reasonably priced (based on the last 12 months of sold figures). I am happy with my choice and am not willing to wait any longer.
 
Lollipop2123 said:
We are hopefully moving house within the next couple of months. I've sold my current house for more than what it was up for in January. We are desperate to move somewhere bigger and stamp duty cut is a welcome saving of over 10k for us. Maybe I'm super naive but I want to move house and I'm not putting my life on hold any longer. We've not over stretched ourselves and are buying a property that is reasonably priced (based on the last 12 months of sold figures). I am happy with my choice and am not willing to wait any longer.
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Sounds fantastic. And you are right if 2020 has taught us anything make sure to seize opportunities whilst you can!
 
Lollipop2123 said:
We are hopefully moving house within the next couple of months. I've sold my current house for more than what it was up for in January. We are desperate to move somewhere bigger and stamp duty cut is a welcome saving of over 10k for us. Maybe I'm super naive but I want to move house and I'm not putting my life on hold any longer. We've not over stretched ourselves and are buying a property that is reasonably priced (based on the last 12 months of sold figures). I am happy with my choice and am not willing to wait any longer.
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If you're like us , you are buying a home to live in , and that means you'll get your money's worth with you day to day living, (if that makes sense?). It's not a risky business venture.
I would be wary of borrowing a lot to buy a house, (if people a needing to borrow to buy) especially at the moment, but people do need somewhere to live . I think lockdown has made people re-evaluate their house.
 
Lollipop2123 said:
We are hopefully moving house within the next couple of months. I've sold my current house for more than what it was up for in January. We are desperate to move somewhere bigger and stamp duty cut is a welcome saving of over 10k for us. Maybe I'm super naive but I want to move house and I'm not putting my life on hold any longer. We've not over stretched ourselves and are buying a property that is reasonably priced (based on the last 12 months of sold figures). I am happy with my choice and am not willing to wait any longer.
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I’m the same. Posted on the thread explaining our situation, but the bottom line is it makes sense for us.

I will say though that I definitely agree the Mail and a lot of estate agents are talking utter bullshit. Even in a sought-after area (particularly for people moving out of London), with multiple potential buyers for every house, all the houses that go in at cheeky asking prices have to reduce to realistic prices a mere week or two later. It is quite amusing watching Rightmove!
 
Following this thread with great interest! We’re currently saving for our first house and the area we’re looking at (not London) is currently overpriced- 2 bed terraces £20,000-£30,000 more than this time last year 😲 we’re not ready to apply yet but hope to be next year. We need to sit tight and see what happens with our jobs and the economy. I’m really hoping the higher LTVs come back because a 20% deposit is unaffordable for us unless we rent for another 6+ years 😫 It really feels unfair that so many people just can’t get on the ladder.
 
Kim Mild said:
If you're like us , you are buying a home to live in , and that means you'll get your money's worth with you day to day living, (if that makes sense?). It's not a risky business venture.
I would be wary of borrowing a lot to buy a house, (if people a needing to borrow to buy) especially at the moment, but people do need somewhere to live . I think lockdown has made people re-evaluate their house.
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Yes exactly this! If i was buying to make an investment or a first time buyer I might hold off though admittedly. I can't wait to move now. Just hope it goes through.
 
If you've already got a house it's not a bad idea at all to move now, if they do fall 10% by the end of next year it doesn't make that much of a difference.

But if you're taking on a huge amount of debt way better to wait while things seem bubbly.

I think the economy is going to be a long downward spiral, it'll really start to bite when the office workers at home start to lose their jobs as they're either replaced by an algorithm or an offshore worker. Not saying all will be, but even 10% over the coming years would have monumental repercussions.
 
Yel said:
If you've already got a house it's not a bad idea at all to move now, if they do fall 10% by the end of next year it doesn't make that much of a difference.

But if you're taking on a huge amount of debt way better to wait while things seem bubbly.

I think the economy is going to be a long downward spiral, it'll really start to bite when the office workers at home start to lose their jobs as they're either replaced by an algorithm or an offshore worker. Not saying all will be, but even 10% over the coming years would have monumental repercussions.
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I’ve found a lot of your financial insights across different threads really helpful. Obviously this isn’t a place for official advice but what are your thoughts for FTB? We’re currently trying to reduce our outgoings for affordability reasons while saving as much as we can, but it feels impossible a lot of the time 😭
 
SansaStark said:
I’ve found a lot of your financial insights across different threads really helpful. Obviously this isn’t a place for official advice but what are your thoughts for FTB? We’re currently trying to reduce our outgoings for affordability reasons while saving as much as we can, but it feels impossible a lot of the time 😭
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Ah thanks, some say I'm pretty pessimistic but I'd say realistic 😄

Sounds like you're doing the right thing, building up as much cash as possible.

As for first time buyers I'd not get too worried about the current situation and wait to see what happens in the spring.

Looking at this
uk-house-prices-2019.png

And you can see how much they fell in the 90s and 2008.

So it seems wishful thinking that they'll carry on going up throughout a recession that's wildly accepted to be far far worse than either of those

Worth remembering in 2008 they manipulated the market so much and those tools are now spent as we never recovered from then. So there's limited intervention they can do going forward.

Even before covid prices looked about to fall:

_106223385_houseprice-nc.png


Anyway don't get too disheartened, it can't carry on with house prices being so out of sync with wages. How it all unravels is anyone's guess - inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation 🤷‍♀️😬
 
Yel said:
Ah thanks, some say I'm pretty pessimistic but I'd say realistic 😄

Sounds like you're doing the right thing, building up as much cash as possible.

As for first time buyers I'd not get too worried about the current situation and wait to see what happens in the spring.

Looking at this
View attachment 214315 q
And you can see how much they fell in the 90s and 2008.

So it seems wishful thinking that they'll carry on going up throughout a recession that's wildly accepted to be far far worse than either of those

Worth remembering in 2008 they manipulated the market so much and those tools are now spent as we never recovered from then. So there's limited intervention they can do going forward.

Even before covid prices looked about to fall:

View attachment 214317 q

Anyway don't get too disheartened, it can't carry on with house prices being so out of sync with wages. How it all unravels is anyone's guess - inflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation 🤷‍♀️😬
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Thank you 😊 I’ll take a little pessimism with reality over the opposite every time. I don’t want anyone to lose money if they sell, but making loads of profit while others struggle to get the deposit together isn’t right either.
 
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